Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an impending US-Russia leadership meeting have been overstated, apparently.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he planned to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump informed the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is another twist in Trump's attempts to mediate an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia done," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was Israel's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided the president leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump benefited from a history of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Combine the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the global economy and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with the country and pausing arms shipments to the nation - then to retreat in the wake of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the war any closer to a peaceful end.
The Russian president may actually be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it seemed probable that Trump would approve on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards delayed.
Recently, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then promoted the possible summit in Hungary.
The following day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – including territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, admitting that ending the hostilities is proving harder than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when neither side desires, or is able to, give up the fight.