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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, although analysts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over disagreements concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant division ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.