Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
